Nowadays the internet is full of betting experts and tipsters. Facebook tipsters, Twitter tipsters, even Instagram tipsters (they are the worst), you name it. Most of them try to charge a couple of euros for their services.
If you decide to use paid tipsters’ services, you need to consider a couple of things.
Monthly fees – Usually paid tipsters charge from €40 to €100 per month. In this case, you need to bet minimum €100 per bet to have a chance to make something out of it. If your bets will be less than €100 it will be very difficult to make money even if your tipster will have a decent month. Do not expect every month to be profitable, the tipster will have losing months for sure. Excellent past results won’t guarantee same results in the future. Especially if tipster appears from nowhere with stats in Excel file, without any proof of their previous bets.
Timing – you must be constantly online, to be one of the first to place the bets after info is sent. If tipster is any good, he should place €200-400 at least on his bets himself. Couple of other subscribers will be placing similar amounts – the smaller the market/league – the quicker odds will drop and you lose all the value. Don’t expect to come back home after few hours and get the same odds as tipster sent to you.
Odds – if tipster is any good, probably always you will find worse odds to take than mentioned in the tip. Anytime you are taking worse odds, you are falling behind compared to tipsters’ stats.
For example, 5 bets were sent at odds of 1.9 – all of them were winners. But you only managed to take 1.72, 1.86, 1.9, 1.77 and 1.75.
Tipster made 450 euros profit (based on 100 euros stake).
You made only 400 euros profit. Still not bad as profit is profit? No. You just wasted 50 euros, which is more than 10% of the profit compared to your stakes.
Next 4 bets sent by your tipster is lost. Tipster still in profit – 900 euros placed, 950 returned, 5.55% returns.
You placed the same bets and your profit is 0. Plus, you paid for the service monthly fee.
You will never achieve similar ROI as tipster. The only exception is – if you place some bets with locals’ bookies which might have slow price updates.
It always makes me laugh when I see tipsters’ terms – if I will not make money in current month, next month you will get for free. Yeah, you will get next month for free, but current month is not just lost fee, it is also lost money on the bets you placed which is usually much more than €40-100 for a fee.
Patience – you will need it. If you decide to follow someone, you need to place all his bets. It will not be easy if you have some knowledge in his leagues and will not agree with some tips. But the worst-case scenario if you start picking which bets to place and which to skip – big chances are you will miss winning bets.
Bookmakers – when you are checking tipster’s past performance, always check which bookmakers he is using. If you see 1xbet and marathonbet (popular bookmakers by tipsters because they have very low margin – hence higher odds), betfred, unibet or betvictor – run away as fast as you can. If tipster is smart, knowledgeable and winning, he would never have accounts with such bookmakers – he would be limited straight away unless he is placing €5 bets. If tipster is winning punter, he would never place €5 bets. Another reason why he is tipping odds from “mickey mouse” bookmakers – he is trying to boost his stats. Most likely odds on Pinnacle or Asia already dropped and the tipster is just trying to sell tips at higher odds than it is currently on the market. Consider the tipster only if he has all tips with Pinnacle/Sbobet odds.
Tipster’s stats – first obviously, you will check his profit.
Next step, have a look at his staking plan. Dodgy tipsters usually start with 10/10 tips; they build up some profit and start betting 1/10 or 2/10 units. In this case, it is difficult to lose previous profit and keeps his stats in green. If dodgy tipster can’t start with winning streak he will open new account and start again until his new account is green and he is able to start selling his tips.
Check number of bets – I would not consider anyone with less than 1000 recorded/proofed bets. You cannot judge someone from 200 bets – sample is too small.
Check his winning/losing streaks – check if he is placing bets straight away after losing bet (if there is possibility to see time the bet was placed). You might notice some tipsters sending 2 tips in a day – if they win, tipster stops for the day. If tips are lost – he will send another few tips, trying to make up for losses. Avoid such tipsters.
Check if his stakes are bigger after losing bets. Not a good sign either if it is.
Check month by month stats – maybe he won 80 units in one month, build up his overall stats and after that 3 months in a row are balancing on zero or even loss.
Check stats by league – maybe he won massive stakes on couple of games on big odds and it boosted his stats. Maybe his all profit is coming just from 2-3 leagues but he is betting on 40 leagues overall.
I have seen some tipsters with 200-300 units profit, started to dig deeper – the guy placed some random bets at HT/FT market with odds of 23. Don’t think he knew what he was doing – just random bet which boosted the stats and created myth that he has inside info.
Tipster’s psychology – I follow one known betting tipsters’ website. In the beginning tipsters are sharing tips for free, trying to build reputation and show their tipping skills. Once they reach some profit, most of them are going paid.
Keep in mind – it is not the same to share your tips for free and go paid. Tipsters mentality is changing. Once he is free, he has no pressure to deliver the results. He might choose some riskier bets, look for some value bets at higher odds or just be lucky. Once he goes paid – pressure is on. He needs to deliver month by month – not a single customer wants to see month in red. After few losing bets, tipster starts panicking, starts offering random bets, he needs to hit a winner as quick as possible.
If you decide to pay for the tips – I would suggest to choose someone who is already paid for some time and not just going from free to paid.
Number of followers/customers – if you decide to pay someone for his tips, it is vital to know how many customers he has. Not easy task, but more customers he has, quicker the odds will be ruined and you won’t be able to place your bets. If you won’t be able to place your bets, what is the point of paying for the tips?
Why tipster is selling his tips? – this is the final question. If I have good info, if I am knowledgeable punter – why would I try to sell info for couple of euros and ruin the market for myself in the future? If someone has good info, he keeps it to himself.
Even if tipster’s accounts are limited in most bookmakers, smart guy will always find a way to create new accounts and make more money betting himself instead of selling tips. Most likely he is just a little fish in the pond trying (just trying) to become bigger fish.
Consider all the facts I mentioned above, before you decide to pay someone for the tips. Meanwhile thanks for reading this long post and I hope it will help you to make right decisions. Choose wise!
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