My previous article was about Tradematesports betting tool helping you identify value bets. Obviously, the best way to check it, sign up for 7 days free trial and see for me how accurate is information provided on Tradematesports blog.
I started with €3000 starting bank. Chose bookmakers I could use in the future – bet365, 10bet, marathonbet, bovada, 188bet, william hill and pokerstars.
Decided to go with 50% Kelly criterion regarding my staking plan. And I already can suspect that probably 30% plan does calculations better. Once you have full bank and start placing bets your calculated stakes are too big for big edge bets. For example, with my starting bank, 9% edge bet could be €140-150 stake. But the same bet when I have €2000 left in the account is much smaller. So if I am a bit unlucky and I lose a couple of big bets, I lose a big chunk of my bank straight away. Of course, I agree that calculations, in theory, are right – smaller bank, smaller stake. But even if I have actual €2000 left in my bank, another €1000 is still not settled. So I didn’t lose that €1000 yet – bets are still pending.
I would suggest move down stakes a bit for big edge bets once you have a full bank to play with at the start of the day. The whole idea of this tool is to stake more money, so usually, you will have more or less 70% of your bank staked most the of time and latest bets will be very small compared to the first ones even the edge is the same.
As a beginner, I just picked All leagues, less than 3 hours till kick off, 1% edge and started to place all the bets I was suggested.
First 4 bets were on baseball from Korea and Japan. I never bet on baseball myself. Another 2 bets on football. First 6 bets – first 6 winners. All won! Whatttt? Good start. I am roughly €200 up.
Started to take every bet. Nothing actually is going on, most of the bets were on football friendlies. Low limits, big moves because of small stakes – got destroyed. Had 7 bets on Iceland football overs/unders – all lost. Not saying to avoid this league. Just the way it went this day. Finished the day with €200 loss after 2.2k turnover. Oh, well. Lesson learned.
Changed my betting strategy. Ditched most of the friendlies. The main template I used for the day was – Recommended leagues, more than 3 hours, edge over 3%.
Also was taking bets from All league but with 3.5% and higher edge. Results were much better, won back around €200 and my bank was close to the initial bank. I was losing only €10 for 2 days of trading. I will take that.
Champions League day. Used the same strategy – only 3-4% edges and higher. Sometimes couldn’t believe the bets I was suggested but was taking everything without too much thinking. At the same time learned few things myself. Some bets I have never taken in my life, but this tool already gave me few tips for my future betting. I will keep it to myself for now.
Great day – €500 up and still some unsettled bets left. Again around €2000 turnover. Overall I did 149 trades in 3 days. What I do not like – massive share of all the bets coming from one bookmaker.
Started day poorly, lost first few big bets on big edge games. Later was recovering whole day and made another hundred.
Again around €2000 turnover per day. Around 180 trades in 4 days. Margin great – 8.4%. I know it won’t last forever. But for now, I am happy. Also, we need to consider that mostly I was betting on garbage games, most football leagues are not started yet and in the future, I should be able to pick from a bigger sample of recommended leagues.
Wake up in the morning, just to see my bank bigger. NBA Summer league – won nearly all bets. Love it when I am sleeping and my bank is growing.
Started the day with €995 profit in my fund.
Today is Saturday. Again million of friendlies, some European football leagues playing, Russians started. Placed the usual number of bets and finished the day making another €400.
Bankroll stands at €4372. Fund growth 45%. Profit €1372 in 5 days! Should I even post this article? Or keep that info to myself? Nah. I know these numbers are insane and won’t last forever, but I am enjoying the moment and it gives me fair picture how this tool works and with your brain and smart using of this tool it can absolutely work. Just make your own rules which bets you will be placing. I have no doubts about it.
The final day of my test as tomorrow I am leaving for well deserved holidays and want to post it before I go.
Not the most successful day – I lost around €150 with 2 trades remaining after midnight.
Stats during 6 days of trading:
Balance stands at €4068, profit €1212 (still 2 open trades left).
Turnover 13.6k, trades 281, ROI 8.9%, fund growth 40.4%
The graph below pretty volatile. You can see that from €1000 profit, I lost €750 just in 30-35 trades.Later in 35 next trades made €1200 profit. My position from poor to riches was changing extremely quickly.
Yes, I know – picture below looks like from paid tipster service with only winning bets, but couldn’t resist. It is nice to see green all over.
- Do not place big stakes on recommended huge edge (9%+) bets, reduce your stakes a bit. I never liked Kelly criterion, for me, it is too risky. Do not do it especially on low-level games – limits are small, and odds moves could be misleading.
- If you are suggested stakes of €17 or €118, place €15 and €120 instead. Doesn’t look so suspicious.
- Use only Recommended bookies with 3%+ edge and might chuck in some bets from All leagues with edge 4-5%+. You need to set up rules for your betting yourself and follow them. I would avoid 1% edge bets – no value in my opinion.
- Sometimes you will be posted a bet from the same game many times. The market is moving and value is shifting from one side to another. Place the first bet and once you get a suggestion for the next one – just skip it. You might need to stomach some losing bets even before the game starts. I have seen bets when I was suggested under 2.5 and later over 3.5 from the same game – if 3 goals are scored, I lose all bets. That’s why once you take the first bet, the next bet from the same game will be in different color and already recorded in your system, so you will notice that. It is up for you to decide if you keep AH and totals as the same bet from the game or different one. In theory, it is completely different bets. Your choice.
- The only issue I see with this betting tool – accounts. How long will they last? On the brighter side – stakes are not so big. Usual bets could be around €40-50. Of course, €100+ bets will happen as well.
Give yourself 7 days free trial and check yourself. Share your experience with me if you want. If you have questions, will be happy to help.
Sometimes I think Marathon’s staff just goes to sleep and leaves the odds unattended for a day or two, they’re that bad. Sadly they limited me to 1 EUR after only 250 EUR profit.
I wonder how you managed to stay so long not limited there…
A lot depends on the leagues you are betting. If you are betting on Bulgarian second division basketball or Romanian handball, you won’t last long.
Also, depends on the region you are opening an account.
Another point – if you made 250 euros betting 300-500 euro stakes or 20-40 euro stakes, also makes difference.