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Category: Academy

Analysing the favourite-longshot bias: Why it exists and how you should respond to it

There are many things that are common knowledge in the world of sports betting, but few can match the tendency to overvalue outside bets and undervalue favourites. This phenomenon is called the favourite-longshot bias, and in this article, we will provide some recommendations for how you can use it to your benefit and keep your winnings intact. When all is said and done, bookmakers are businesses. It is for that very reason that each bookmaker will add a margin to all provided odds so that he can turn a profit. This is done by decreasing the odds relative to the fair expectation associated with each outcome. Let us take a two-player match as an example. In the following equation, the odds of player A being victorious are ‘a’ and the odds of player B emerging triumphant are ‘b’: Margin = [(1/a) + (1/b)] x 100 per cent. However, the figure of 100 per cent – reflecting as it does the sum of probabilities of all possible outcomes – will only be such in a fair book. A profit-seeking bookmaker will look to alter the equation to his advantage, choosing a figure higher than 100 per cent. This creates an excess, which is known in the industry as an overround, vig or juice. This is all intuitive, but it is not quite as obvious how the bookmaker loads his margins – he can do so all on player A, all on player B or spread evenly between the two.

How margin is added to the odds

In normal circumstances, the wisest choice would seem to be spreading the margin evenly between the two players. This would mean that if both were of a similar calibre, their fair odds would be 2.00. Read More

Betting: The impact of luck and skill

It is the question at the root of all betting: why do some people have more success at generating profits than others? Is it easy to learn the required skills, or is luck more important in determining how successful a bettor is?

Paradox of Skill

It is important to bear in mind that bettors do not want to hear that much of what they do is down to fortune. Of course, some games – roulette for example – Read More

Is it worth to use paid tipsters?

Nowadays the internet is full of betting experts and tipsters. Facebook tipsters, Twitter tipsters, even Instagram tipsters (they are the worst), you name it. Most of them try to charge a couple of euros for their services.
If you decide to use paid tipsters’ services, you need to consider a couple of things. Read More

Why you should record every bet you place?

I am treating my betting as my investment. I need to know how much money I spend and how much money I receive back.
In the beginning, I was just recording my starting bank at the start of the new football season and amount of money I have in each of my bookies. Monthly I was updating my stats and checking how much I am winning/losing. Main calculations I was doing at the end of the year. Read More

Bets recording platforms

Most betting people are mentioning the importance of recording your bets and I absolutely agree with them. Some of you are recording bets in excel file, some of you are using online platforms. There are plenty of free online recording platforms, but I would like to have a closer look at two of them today.
Betmanager (formerly known as betdog). I used betdog few years ago. At the moment it looked one of the best on the market. A few months ago owners of betdog decided to renew platform, changed the name and added few new features. Read More

Can you be a winning player?

Before you start betting please go through these points and answer yourself – can you say Yes to most of the points mentioned below? If most of the answers are No – don’t even start. You will save some money and most important your health as betting is quite stressful.

First of all, you need to have your betting bank. The betting bank is specifically assigned amount of money for the betting. It is not the money for your bills, it is not the money for your university fees or rent money. It is your money designated to your new business plan, your possible secondary income. Read More

Bankroll management and staking plans

In one of the articles, I already mentioned the importance of keeping your betting bankroll separate from daily expenses. It will help you to keep track and control of your balances.
Having bankroll is only beginning of your business plan. Next step is staking plans. I will go through a couple of them and it is your choice to chose the best option for yourself. Obviously, you do not need to stick to one plan forever, you can mix them and change them until you find the best option for you.
Let’s say we are starting with €1000 bank. Read More

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